Randomness

Randomness - Mental Model Series - 12 

“Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.”- NN Taleb

  Ramdomness is the absence of patterns and predictability in events. But please note that
Individual random events are by definition unpredictable, but in many cases the frequency of different outcomes over a large number of events (or "trials") is predictable.

Randomness influence our personal and professional lives more than we realize. We normally forget many of those who fail and remember only the few who succeed. We then create reasons and patterns for their successes even though they are largely random . This is called by fooled-by -randomness effect . Nassim Taleb's book on this very subject is a classic and must read.

In his book , there are couple of quotes that stuck with my mind

• The only aspect of your life that fortune does not have control over is your behavior.
• Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Can't repeat it? Not skillful.

He goes onto say something very important about probability too..

"Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser. Mother nature does not tell you how many holes there are on the roulette table , nor does she deliver problems in a textbook way (in the real world one has to guess the problem more than the solution)."

Footnote -
What are Mental Models ?
“It’s your mind’s toolbox for making decisions. The more tools you have, the more equipped you are to make good decisions. “
A mental model is an explanation of how something works. It is a concept, framework, or worldview that you carry around in your mind to help you interpret the world and understand the relationship between things. Mental models are deeply held beliefs about how the world works. 
For More , read https://jamesclear.com/feynman-mental-models